Forecasting
Ramadan stock planning for mini-markets
Ramadan moves every year, and so does demand. Last year's sales are your best guide — if you line them up with the right calendar.
The Idrak team··7 min read
Ramadan 1448 is expected to begin around 8 February 2027, subject to the moon sighting. For a mini-market, the weeks before and during the month can bring the biggest swings of the year: some categories double, others go quiet, and the last ten nights and Eid behave differently again.
Compare Ramadan with Ramadan, not February with February
Because the Hijri calendar moves about eleven days earlier each year, comparing this February with last February mixes Ramadan days with ordinary ones. Line up last year's sales by Hijri date instead: the first days of Ramadan with the first days of Ramadan, the last ten nights with the last ten nights.
Categories that usually move
- Dates, qamar el-din, Vimto and other drink concentrates
- Flour, sugar, oil, rice and lentils for home cooking
- Laban, labneh and dairy for suhoor
- Sweets, nuts and chocolate in the run-up to Eid
Your own shop may differ — a mini-market near offices behaves differently from one in a residential street. That's exactly why your own history matters more than any general list.
Plan reorders around supplier lead times
Many suppliers get busy in the two weeks before Ramadan. Work backwards from the first day: if a supplier takes five days to deliver and you want stock on the shelf three days early, your order goes out eight days before. Do the same for the Eid peak.
Where Idrak helps
Idrak's forecast knows when Ramadan and both Eids fall, compares like with like across years, and suggests reorder quantities per branch. When you approve a plan, it drafts the email to each supplier. You stay in control of the final numbers.